ABSTRACT
Introduction: pneumonia is a respiratory pathology mainly of infectious origin and represents the seventh leading cause of death in Colombia, with a high incidence of morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age. In view of the closing of the PDSP 2011-2022, the context of the covid-19 pandemic and the creation of the new development plan and PDSP, it is necessary to characterize pneumonia mortality and design a model to predict mortality behavior to guide public health efforts. Methodology: an analytical ecological analysis was designed with time series analysis using the methodology of Bello l & Martinez and Box-Jenkins. Results: it was identified that there is a higher proportion of mortality in adults over 65 years of age;as for sex, no differences were identified in the proportions;as for the insurance regime, statistical differences were identified, as well as a statistical association between the variables of insurance regime and sex (p<0.001). On the other hand, a SARIMA (0,1,2)x(1,1,1,1)12 model was designed with an AIC=1252.81, an RMSE=96 and a mape=22.0%. Conclusions: a possible upward trend was identified from 2014 to 2018, and a decreasing trend after 2018. Pneumonia mortality in Colombia was mainly represented by the age group 65 years and older with 73.6% (n=42,070), likewise, it is relevant to mention that there were no differences in the distribution by sex. A strong difference between insurance regimes was identified. A SARIMA(0,1,2) x(1,1,1,1)12 model was defined with a RSME of 96 and a MAPE of 22.0%.